Democrats are looking for a rout in Tuesday’s House special election in New Mexico that will add to their razor-thin majority in Congress and break their streak of underperformances since the 2020 election.
Republicans, meanwhile, are looking to see if their messaging on police and public safety can still resonate with voters, even in heavily Democratic districts.
New Mexico’s 1st district was left open by Secretary of the Interior, who won this seat by more than 16 points in 2020. The district has been trending solidly Democratic since 2008, and voted for President Biden by 23 points.
Still, after a special election in Texas’ 6th shut out any Democratic candidates, national groups are holding nothing back in this race.
Democratic candidate Melanie Stansbury, a state representative who beat a 7-term Republican for her seat, received more than $231,687 from Congressional members and outside groups between April and mid-May. Another $23,300 came in on Sunday.
By comparison, Republican candidate Mark Moores, who has served in the state legislature since 2013, received $43,251 between April and mid-May.
Democratic reinforcements were lacking in the runoff for Texas’ 6th district, in part due to the nature of the wide-open blanket primary. Jana Lynne Sanchez, who came in third behind two Republicans, got $7,200 in outside help in the weeks before her race, according to a pre-election report.
The White House has also gotten involved in this special election — their first move in a 2021 House race since senior advisor Cedric Richmond endorsed Democrat Troy Carter for his old Louisiana seat.
Second gentleman Doug Emhoff paid a visit to Albuquerque in late May to campaign for Stansbury. First lady Jill Biden was also in the state in April and both Mr. Biden and Haaland have endorsed Stansbury.
“It’s crunch time. Don’t look at the polls. Don’t look at anything. Act like we’re down. There’s a sense of urgency,” Emhoff said at the event with Stansbury.
Stansbury is a former scientist and Senate aide who worked in the Office of Management and Budget under former President Obama, and has focused on economic recovery and education in her campaign. She’s been backed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, who once represented the district.
Moores is a former football player for the University of New Mexico who flipped his state senate seat in 2012. He has made public safety the crux of his campaign against Stansbury, hitting her for supporting the BREATHE Act, a bill supported by Black Lives Matter activists that’s been backed by Congresswomen Ayanna Pressley and Rashida Tlaib.
“We need the resources and the last thing we need to do is pass radical legislation like the BREATHE Act, which defunds the police,” Moores said at a debate earlier this month.
In response, Stansbury has pointed to her involvement in bringing funding to local police departments.
Moores messaging is a continuation of the attacks House Republicans used against Democratic members in 2020, tying them to the “Defund the Police” movement. It’s especially prevalent in the city of Albuquerque, which has seen an uptick in homicides and assault from 2020 to 2021.
After losing 15 seats in the 2020 elections, the House Democratic campaign arm did a “deep dive” that acknowledged how effective Republican messaging was– while still putting the brunt of it on turnout driven by former President Trump.
“I don’t think you can evaluate the effectiveness of their false attacks without considering how the Trump turnout made those lies look more impactful than they might otherwise have been,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Sean Patrick Maloney said in a statement.
The DCCC transferred $36,000 to the state Democratic party in late April. Their counterparts at the National Republican Congressional Committee have also gotten involved, albeit at a smaller scale, and sent $5,000 to Moores.
The only public poll showed Stansbury with a 16 point lead over Moores, with Independent candidate Aubrey Dunn getting 5% and Libertarian candidate Chris Manning with 3%.
A Stansbury victory would shore up Democrat’s current 219-211 majority in the House, which has proven to create incredibly tight House votes on Capitol security spending, and could be crucial ahead of a potential July vote on an infrastructure bill.
“If we don’t make sure that we keep this seat, then that vote will get closer and closer… we cannot lose this,” said Democratic Congresswoman Teresa Leger Fernandez of New Mexico during a virtual get out the vote rally.
“I’m going to show up for Melanie until June 1st and then I’m going to show up when she gets sworn in on June 2nd. Because we aren’t going to give her a day of rest, are we?”
Democratic voters have outpaced Republicans in the early vote by a margin of 2 to 1, according to the Albuquerque Journal. Polls in New Mexico’s 1st close Tuesday at 7 p.m. MT.