Nate Silver Says Ohio Is For Obama

Not only does statistician, and election prognosticator guru, Nate Silver say President Obama has a 91% chance at winning the election, he says Ohio is proving to be quite the firewall for the President:

Obama in Mentor, OH
Photo Courtesy AP

Mr. Obama is an 85 percent favorite to carry Ohio, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. Not coincidentally, that almost exactly matches his odds of winning re-election, according to the model.


If not for the auto rescue, Ohio’s slight Republican lean would most likely have remained in effect. Unlike in other states, there are no major demographic trends affecting the state’s partisan balance.


If Ohio were, relative to the national popular vote, two percentage points Republican-leaning this election — its average over the last 60 years — the state would be a tossup. And if Mr. Romney were able to carry Ohio, he would have many more paths to the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the White House.


But if the polls are right, and the auto rescue and Ohio’s relatively healthy economy help Mr. Obama prevail in the Buckeye State, then it becomes difficult — though not impossible — for Mr. Romney to piece together a winning electoral map.

Obama is having trouble with the white vote, but not in Ohio.  I recall some experts saying he would have trouble getting working-class whites in Pennsylvania and Ohio.  It’s highly probable those two states will be in the President’s corner again tomorrow night.



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